Thesis alerts
Not a filing feed. Every row below is a state that moved — it names where it was, where it is, and the document that moved it — and it is here only because it passed a numeric test that a reader can read and disagree with. “A filing arrived” is on /filings; the overnight edition is the brief.
Thesis changes
in the last 30 days, dated by the evidence — not by when we read it
Rules firing
the rest fired nothing and are listed with their test
Rules rejected
designed, measured, and not shipped — each with the number that killed it
SPACs touched
of the live universe
The stated combination deadline moved · 25
Runway is the denominator of every annualised figure on this platform, and the deadline is when the trust is returned if nothing closes. Both directions matter: an extension is time bought, a pull-in is a countdown.The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 14 Aug 2026
- this 10-Q
- 4 Dec 2027
477 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 29 May 2026
- this 10-Q
- 29 Aug 2026
92 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 3 Mar 2026
- this 10-Q
- 3 Mar 2027
365 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 20 Jun 2026
- this 10-Q
- 17 Jun 2027
362 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 14 Aug 2026
- this 10-Q
- 31 Dec 2026
139 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 27 Jun 2026
- this 10-Q
- 27 Dec 2026
183 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 18 Jul 2026
- this 10-Q
- 18 Apr 2027
274 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 5 Aug 2026
- this 10-Q
- 5 Aug 2027
365 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 26 May 2029
- this 10-Q
- 28 Aug 2027
637 fewer days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 12 Jun 2026
- this 10-Q
- 12 Jun 2027
365 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 12 Aug 2026
- this 10-Q
- 12 Aug 2027
365 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 27 Jul 2026
- this 10-Q
- 27 Oct 2026
92 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 6 Jun 2026
- this 10-Q
- 6 Jun 2027
365 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 16 Jul 2026
- this 10-Q
- 30 Apr 2027
288 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 25 Nov 2028
- this 10-Q
- 25 May 2027
550 fewer days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 24 Jun 2026
- this 10-Q
- 24 Jun 2027
365 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 18 Dec 2027
- this 10-Q
- 18 Mar 2028
91 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 20 Jun 2026
- this 10-Q
- 20 Dec 2026
183 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 8 Jun 2029
- this 10-Q
- 10 Jun 2028
363 fewer days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 14 May 2029
- this 10-Q
- 22 May 2027
723 fewer days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 22 May 2026
- this 10-Q
- 22 Jun 2027
396 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 23 Dec 2026
- this 10-Q
- 23 Mar 2027
90 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 1 Apr 2026
- this 10-Q
- 1 Apr 2027
365 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 5 Jun 2026
- this 10-Q
- 5 Mar 2027
273 more days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
The combination deadline the filings state
- previous 10-Q
- 25 Feb 2029
- this 10-Q
- 27 Feb 2028
364 fewer days before the trust must be returned if nothing has closed.
A >5% holder materially increased its stake · 13
The funds that take 5%+ of a SPAC are overwhelmingly arbitrage funds, and arbitrage funds redeem. A stake that is being ACCUMULATED is a forecast of the next redemption rate and of who controls the vote.Sculptor Capital's reported stake
- filed 2026-06-04
- 6.03% of the class
- this SC 13G/A
- 9.40% of the class
Sculptor Capital reports 3.37 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Fort Baker Capital Management's reported stake
- filed 2026-05-15
- 6.40% of the class
- this SC 13G/A
- 9.80% of the class
Fort Baker Capital Management reports 3.40 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Meteora Capital's reported stake
- filed 2026-05-15
- 0.00% of the class
- this SC 13G/A
- 6.77% of the class
Meteora Capital reports 6.77 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Fort Baker Capital Management's reported stake
- filed 2026-05-15
- 6.40% of the class
- this SC 13G/A
- 9.30% of the class
Fort Baker Capital Management reports 2.90 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Meteora Capital's reported stake
- filed 2026-05-15
- 0.00% of the class
- this SC 13G/A
- 5.22% of the class
Meteora Capital reports 5.22 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
MMCAP International Inc. SPC's reported stake
- filed 2026-04-01
- 5.10% of the class
- this SC 13G/A
- 7.60% of the class
MMCAP International Inc. SPC reports 2.50 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Polar Asset Management's reported stake
- filed 2025-08-14
- 3.50% of the class
- this SC 13G
- 5.60% of the class
Polar Asset Management reports 2.10 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Fort Baker Capital Management's reported stake
- filed 2026-05-15
- 6.50% of the class
- this SC 13G/A
- 8.90% of the class
Fort Baker Capital Management reports 2.40 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Barclays's reported stake
- filed 2026-02-11
- 3.75% of the class
- this SC 13G
- 5.97% of the class
Barclays reports 2.22 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Barclays's reported stake
- filed 2025-08-12
- 3.00% of the class
- this SC 13G
- 5.00% of the class
Barclays reports 2.00 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Glazer Capital's reported stake
- filed 2026-02-12
- 2.74% of the class
- this SC 13G
- 5.08% of the class
Glazer Capital reports 2.34 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Mizuho Financial Group's reported stake
- filed 2025-11-13
- 3.20% of the class
- this SC 13G
- 8.90% of the class
Mizuho Financial Group reports 5.70 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
Barclays's reported stake
- filed 2026-02-11
- 4.35% of the class
- this SC 13G
- 6.99% of the class
Barclays reports 2.64 percentage points more of the class than its previous filing. A 5%+ holder in a SPAC is usually an arbitrage fund, and arbitrage funds redeem.
A shareholder vote is now on the calendar · 6
A vote is the moment the redemption floor becomes claimable: it opens the election window in which a holder can take the trust in cash. Until one is called, a trust discount is a number with no date attached to it.A vote on extending the deadline
- before this filing
- no vote date on file
- scheduled by this PRE 14A
- 1 Oct 2026
The meeting is 21 days away. A vote opens a redemption election; the broker cutoff falls before the meeting date and is stated on the dossier.
waitredeemsellscheduled by 0001493152-26-041391, filed 3 Sept 2026A vote on extending the deadline
- before this filing
- no vote date on file
- scheduled by this DEF 14A
- 15 Sept 2026
The meeting is 5 days away. A vote opens a redemption election; the broker cutoff falls before the meeting date and is stated on the dossier.
waitredeemsellscheduled by 0001493152-26-040081, filed 25 Aug 2026A vote on extending the deadline
- before this filing
- no vote date on file
- scheduled by this PRE 14A
- 24 Sept 2026
The meeting is 14 days away. A vote opens a redemption election; the broker cutoff falls before the meeting date and is stated on the dossier.
waitredeemsellscheduled by 0001493152-26-039924, filed 25 Aug 2026A vote on extending the deadline
- before this filing
- no vote date on file
- scheduled by this PRE 14A
- 25 Sept 2026
The meeting is 15 days away. A vote opens a redemption election; the broker cutoff falls before the meeting date and is stated on the dossier.
waitredeemsellscheduled by 0001104659-26-099248, filed 20 Aug 2026A vote on extending the deadline
- before this filing
- no vote date on file
- scheduled by this DEF 14A
- 16 Sept 2026
The meeting is 6 days away. A vote opens a redemption election; the broker cutoff falls before the meeting date and is stated on the dossier.
waitredeemsellscheduled by 0001185185-26-003577, filed 17 Aug 2026A vote on extending the deadline
- before this filing
- no vote date on file
- scheduled by this PRE 14A
- 14 Sept 2026
The meeting is 4 days away. A vote opens a redemption election; the broker cutoff falls before the meeting date and is stated on the dossier.
waitredeemsellscheduled by 0001683168-26-006297, filed 13 Aug 2026
The trust account was drawn down · 5
The trust is the downside. A large fall means holders have already redeemed, so the vehicle that closes the deal is materially smaller than the one on the deck — and the post-close float with it.Cash held in the trust account
- previous 10-Q
- $247.7m
- this 10-Q
- $91.4m
Shares subject to possible redemption 23,000,000 → 8,409,633
The trust is $156.4m smaller than the previous filing stated — a fall of 63.1%.
Cash held in the trust account
- previous 10-Q
- $310.9m
- this 10-Q
- $54.0m
Shares subject to possible redemption 28,750,000 → 4,947,157
The trust is $256.9m smaller than the previous filing stated — a fall of 82.6%.
Cash held in the trust account
- previous 10-Q
- $242.0m
- this 10-Q
- $146.8m
The trust is $95.2m smaller than the previous filing stated — a fall of 39.3%.
Cash held in the trust account
- previous 10-Q
- $172.9m
- this 10-Q
- $42.9m
Shares subject to possible redemption 16,000,000 → 3,923,923
The trust is $130.0m smaller than the previous filing stated — a fall of 75.2%.
Cash held in the trust account
- previous 10-Q
- $121.8m
- this 10-Q
- $46.4m
Shares subject to possible redemption 11,500,000 → 4,332,775
The trust is $75.4m smaller than the previous filing stated — a fall of 61.9%.
The deal's outside date moved · 1
The long-stop date is when either party may walk away from the merger agreement. Moving it is the parties telling you what they think closing now takes.The merger agreement's outside date
- filed 0001185185-26-003213
- 21 Sept 2026
- this 8-K
- 30 Nov 2026
Either party may walk 70 days later than the previous record stated.
The PIPE changed size · 1
The PIPE is the cash that replaces what redemptions take out, and the shares it issues are the dilution the headline deal value does not show.The PIPE
- filed 0001213900-26-071290
- $420.0m
- this S-4
- $39.1m
The PIPE is smaller than the previous record by $380.9m.
Ran, found nothing · 3
These rules were evaluated over the same window and cleared no row. A rule that fires nothing is not a rule that is missing.The minimum-cash closing condition moved
Estimated NAV is now above the market price
A redemption tally was filed
What this page could not judge
The known blind spots, counted. A channel that reports only what it found teaches its reader that what it found is everything there is.- 0 future votes name a scheduling filing we do not hold, so they cannot be dated and no alert is invented for them.
- 39 live SPACs carry no trust snapshot at all, so no NAV crossing can be measured on them.
- 14 live SPACs have fewer than six sessions of prices, which is the minimum a crossing needs.
- 4 deadline changes were read off a proxy and refused: a proxy proposes an extension, a 10-Q reports the one that stands. Each of those SPACs appears above under the vote instead.
- 2 trust figures rose by more than a quarter between two filings and were refused as extraction artefacts. A trust cannot grow by a quarter of itself.
Rules that were designed and rejected · 7
Every one of these is true and detectable. None of them earned an interruption, and the measurement that decided it is printed rather than summarised.a new 13G — an arb fund entered
226 first-appearance 13G/13D rows at ≥5% on live SPACs in 30 days. Volume is the smaller problem: with no prior filing there is no "from" state, so the alert can only say "not previously on file" — and the whole InstHolder table was harvested in two sweeps (2,316 rows on 2026-08-15, 188 on 08-14, filings dating back to 2018). An alert cannot distinguish "the fund bought this month" from "we read the filing this month", and "an arb fund entered" asserts the first. `ARB_POSITION_GREW` keeps the half that has two states. Revisit when 13Gs are harvested on a clock, so a first appearance has a date we own.
we now hold a $90m minimum-cash condition and held nothing before
9 of the 15 minimum-cash rows are `unextracted → value` (and 8 of 14 PIPE rows). That arrow is a claim about the earlier FILING that we are not entitled to make: the clause may be there in wording our regex does not match. It is news about our coverage and belongs on the dossier's diff strip, which already carries it in the four-state form.
substantial-doubt language appeared where the previous filing had none
Built, measured, and withdrawn before it shipped. 187 appearances against 12 resolutions all-time; 34 in the last 30 days, of which **33 landed inside two weeks** of the Q2 10-Q season. A channel that delivers 33 rows in a fortnight and nothing for the five months either side teaches its reader to mute it, twice a year. The seasonality alone might be survivable; what is not is that the alert had to concede its own irrelevance in its consequence sentence — the doubt is about the OPERATING SHELL, and the trust is held separately, so a holder whose downside is the trust does not buy, wait, sell or redeem differently. (The obvious defence, that it is just ASC 205-40 firing once the mandatory liquidation date is inside 12 months, is only 14 of the 34 — so it is not merely mechanical. It is simply not about the trust.) It stays on the dossier diff strip, which is where a standing condition belongs.
read the deadline change off a DEF 14A as well as a 10-Q
ROSS, in the first run: the alert read "previous DEF 14A 16 Sept 2026 → this DEF 14A 16 Mar 2028" and concluded **547 more days before the trust must be returned**. The 2028 date is what the proxy PROPOSES, subject to the vote it is calling for 16 Sept 2026. That is an unproven relief of urgency in a channel whose whole claim is that it never implies urgency it cannot prove, and it is the same distinction `src/lib/deadline-authority.ts` already refuses on (`deadline-unapproved`). A periodic report STATES the deadline as it stands; a proxy ASKS. Restricting the rule to 10-Q/10-K costs 7 of 37 rows in 30 days and loses no information: every one of those proxies also produces a `VOTE_SCHEDULED` alert, which is the true and dated version of the same news.
the sponsor lent the SPAC more money
20 changes in 30 days, 12 of them increases — so the volume is fine. It fails the ONLY test that matters here: name the decision it moves. A holder whose downside is the trust does not buy, wait, sell or redeem differently because the sponsor funded another extension payment out of a promissory note; the loan sits outside the trust and behind it. It is real signal about sponsor commitment and it belongs on the sponsor dossier.
the SPAC changed the sector it says it is hunting
Already measured by `filing-diff.ts`: 10 of 124 `sectorLanguage` signals changed, and most of those cosmetically — LATA gained an article and an abbreviation, MUZE had a grammar fix, DRDB is a tag-strip artefact. `normalizeSnippet` cannot tell those from CUB pivoting to Venezuelan upstream oil and gas. A prose-change signal wants its own treatment, not a seat in a numeric channel, and shipping it at this precision would spend the reader's trust on three real pivots buried in seven typographical ones.
the redeemable share count dropped — its own alert
It is the SAME EVENT as the trust drawdown seen from the other side. Over 365 days, 21 of the 45 material share-count falls land on a filing that ALSO carries a material trust fall. Two rules would interrupt a reader twice for one redemption. It is now a second line on `TRUST_DRAWN_DOWN`, and the 24 share-falls with no trust fall of their own still fire through it — one event, one interruption, both numbers.