M3-Brigade (Mohsin Meghji)

#70 of 117

51/100Mixed recordlow confidence

51/100 from 2 resolved vehicles (1 closed, 1 failed), 29% of the raw 54 after small-sample shrink, completion credit gated ×0.95 by the measured post-close record. Confidence: low.

Vehicles

1 in the live DB · 3 SEC-verified priors · computed by SpacBrain from cited rows, as of 2026-09-11

Resolved

1 closed · 1 liquidated · 0 terminated

Best priced exit

-30.6%

GFR vs the $10.00 baseline

Worst priced exit

-30.6%

GFR vs the $10.00 baseline

Sponsor DNA

what has happened before, with its sample size

Completion rate—n=2 resolved vehiclesderived
2 resolved vehicles on record; this rate is published from 3. Below three the percentage can only be 0, 50 or 100 and says less than the counts beside it.
Liquidation rate—n=2 resolved vehiclesderived
2 resolved vehicles on record; this rate is published from 3. Below three the percentage can only be 0, 50 or 100 and says less than the counts beside it.
Median post-close return—n=1 priced completed deSPACderived
1 priced completed deSPAC on record; this median is published from 3. Two points have no middle — a median over them is their mean, and moves with either one.
Median redemption—n=0 redemption events with a stated ratederived
No redemption event with a stated rate on record — absent, which is not the same as zero. Extraction covers part of the universe, so a low count is our coverage as much as the sponsor’s history.
Deals terminated0terminated dealscounted
No announced combination on this sponsor’s record has been terminated.
Extension votes on record0extension votescounted
No extension vote extracted for this sponsor. Extraction is partial across the universe, so this is an absence of rows, NOT evidence of zero extensions.

2 of 6 statistics carry a figure for this sponsor. A rate is published from 3 resolved vehicles and a median from 3 observations: two points have no middle, and a rate over two can only be 0, 50 or 100. Counts have no threshold — a count is an observation, not an estimate.

Everything marked derived is arithmetic we did to rows we hold, not a figure any filing states.

What this panel will not tell you, and why (6)›

Median day-one move on announcement
PriceBar holds 2026-05-11 → 2026-08-17 only. Of 83 dated announcements across the whole universe, 16 fall on a day we hold a bar for a scored sponsor’s vehicle, spread over 14 sponsors — one sponsor reaches three observations. A bar that does not exist is not a 0% move.
Pre-vote move
Only 12 deals carry a vote date at all, and exactly 1 of them falls inside the PriceBar window. One observation is an anecdote with a decimal point.
Median time from IPO to announcement
42 IPO→announcement pairs exist, but only six sponsors have two and one has three. Enough for a statistic about the asset class; not for one about a sponsor, which is what this panel claims to be.
Median time from signing to close
Exactly 1 deal in the entire database is CLOSED and carries an announcement date. There is no 2nd observation anywhere to take a median over.
12-month post-deSPAC return
`SponsorPriorVehicle.postCloseReturnPct` is measured at the LAST close we hold, whenever that is — not on a 12-month anniversary. We hold no price history for the resulting companies, so the anniversary price does not exist. The median post-close return above is the honest version of this number and says what it is measured against.
Sponsor capital at risk
Nothing stores it. The only sponsor-economics column we hold is `Deal.promotePct` (founder shares as a percentage of post-IPO shares, on 34 deals under a scored sponsor), and that measures the equity the sponsor got nearly free — the opposite of the dollars it put in. Deriving at-risk capital from a promote percentage would be an invention with a citation stapled to it.

Score breakdown

every component, what it measured, and what it could not

Deal completion20% weightn=247/100
1/2 resolved vehicles closed a deal (50%); 1 liquidated, 0 terminated. Gated ×0.95 by measured post-close quality (45/100): closing deals that ended below trust value is not a completed job, so only 95% of the completion credit is earned. Full credit resumes at outcome quality 50/100 (the median deSPAC ending at trust value); the gate can never exceed 1×. Small sample — the shrink below keeps this near neutral.
Liquidation / termination drag16% weightn=475/100
1 liquidation and 0 terminations across 4 vehicles raised → 25% attrition (terminations 1.25×, stale shells 0.75×).
Post-close outcome quality40% weightn=145/100
1 priced deSPAC vs trust value (prior vehicles against the $10.00 IPO baseline, in-DB vehicles against the trust they filed): median -31%, 1/1 still worth at least half of trust, 0 at under a tenth of it. Worst: GFR -31%. n=1, pulled toward neutral.
Redemption behaviour10% weightnot measurable
No redemption events extracted for this sponsor yet (coverage is partial) — held neutral; absence of rows is NOT evidence of zero redemptions.
Held at the neutral 50 across its full 10% weight — missing data is never scored as a failure, but it never earns credit either.
Extension reliance8% weightnot measurable
No extension filings extracted for this sponsor — held neutral (partial coverage, not a clean record).
Held at the neutral 50 across its full 8% weight — missing data is never scored as a failure, but it never earns credit either.
Live fleet vs trust6% weightn=1100/100
1/1 live vehicle trading at or above the trust value it filed.
Measured weak recordflat penaltyn=1not measurable
Only 1 measured prior vehicle (median -31%) — one vehicle is an anecdote, not a record; the rule needs ≥2.

How the number is built: weighted mean of the six components above = 54, then pulled 71% of the way back to the neutral 50 for small sample size (2 resolved vehicles) = 51.

2 components are not measurable for this sponsor (redemption behaviour, extension reliance) — 18% of the weight is a neutral placeholder rather than evidence. That is why the confidence chip reads low.

How the Sponsor Score worksoutcome-first weighting

The score answers one question: did this sponsor make money for the people who held through the merger? Not “did they get a deal signed”. Those are different questions, and most sponsor rankings quietly answer the second one.

So post-close outcome quality carries 40% — the realised return of every prior vehicle we can price from a primary filing, measured against the $10.00 trust baseline. Deal completion carries 20%, and it is gated: closing deals that ended below trust value only earns part of the completion credit, because closing is a precondition for a return, not a return. Liquidation and termination drag takes 16%, redemption behaviour 10%, extension reliance 8%, and what the tape says about the live fleet just 6% — a quote is an opinion, not evidence.

A component with no data is never guessed. It is held at the neutral 50 across its full weight and labelled “not measurable”. Dropping it and re-weighting the rest would quietly reward a sponsor for having no verifiable record — exactly backwards. The consequence: a sponsor with no post-close evidence at all cannot read above 71, and cannot be labelled a strong operator no matter how many deals it closed.

Experience never inflates the score. There is no “years in business” component. A first-time sponsor sits at exactly 50 and reads “unproven” with low confidence — new is not bad. Sample size only pulls a score toward or away from that neutral 50, so nobody is called great or terrible on one vehicle.

Every input is a row already in the database, sourced from SEC primary filings: prior vehicles verified on EDGAR, redemption results read out of 8-Ks, prices from public feeds. The arithmetic is deterministic — no model, no LLM, no judgement call. Research tooling, not investment advice.

Prior vehicles

3 SEC-verified — what happened to holders who stayed in

Vehicle	Outcome	Became	vs $10.00	Today	Source
M3-Brigade Acquisition IIIIPO 2021	Completed	Greenfire ResourcesGFR	-30.6%	Trading$6.94 · Aug 14, 2026	0001213900-23-067037
M3-Brigade Acquisition IIIPO 2021	Liquidated	—	—	—	0001213900-23-098861
M3-Brigade Acquisition V (→ Velos I)IPO 2024	Searching	in-deal (DEFM14A 2026-05)VLOS	—	—	0001213900-24-064219

1 of 3 prior vehicles carry an honest post-close price, split-adjusted against the $10.00 trust baseline a holder gave up at the merger. Cash buyouts are read from the per-share consideration stated in the DEFM14A / SC 14D-9; a buyout no filing prices stays unpriced and stays out of the score. “Listing ended” means the quote stopped with no buyer — scored as a total loss because that is what the evidence says, but never printed as a percentage we cannot source.

Current fleet

the vehicles running today

MBVIM3-Brigade VI$10.23Searching$345M

Research profile

synthesized from SEC filings + sourced research

M3-Brigade — Mohsin Meghji's franchise. Prior-vehicle track record (SEC-verified): (1) M3-Brigade Acquisition III COMPLETED → Greenfire Resources (GFR, 2023; confirmed via 425 filings). (2) M3-Brigade II LIQUIDATED (25-NSE 2023-12). (3) M3-Brigade V (renamed Velos Acquisition I) in-deal (DEFM14A 2026-05). Current vehicle MBVI searching. Net: 1 completed deSPAC, 1 liquidation, 1 in-deal. Sources: SEC EDGAR submissions API (formerNames) + full-text search, efts.sec.gov.

— research profile — M3-Brigade is a SPAC sponsor franchise built on the partnership of M3 Partners, LP, a New York-based restructuring and merchant banking advisory firm founded by Mohsin Y. Meghji, and Brigade Capital Management, LP, a credit-focused global investment advisor with approximately $25 billion in assets under management. Meghji, a nationally recognized turnaround professional with more than 30 years of experience, serves as Executive Chairman across the vehicles, while Matthew Perkal, who leads industry coverage at Brigade Capital, serves as CEO and Director. Charles E. Garner rounds out the team as CFO. Meghji's day job is deeply rooted in distressed situations: he has served as Chief Restructuring Officer or in analogous roles for a long list of bankruptcy cases including Sears Holdings, Barneys, Sanchez Energy, Sable Permian Resources, Seadrill Partners, Sorrento Therapeutics, True Value, Mondee Holdings, and Zachry Holdings, and his firm M3 Partners has been involved in high-profile crypto bankruptcies such as BlockFi, Celsius, Genesis Global, Voyager Digital, and Coin Cloud. His most recent corporate management role was as EVP and Head of Strategy at Springleaf (now OneMain Holdings), where he helped guide the subprime lender from operating losses to profitability and a 2013 IPO at a $1.95 billion valuation.

The sponsor's track record across its prior vehicles is mixed and increasingly troubled. The first vehicle, M III Acquisition Corp. (2015–2019), completed a business combination in March 2018 to create Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives (IEA), a renewable energy EPC company that was ultimately acquired by MasTec in October 2022 at a valuation of approximately $1.1 billion, representing the franchise's clearest success. The second vehicle, M3-Brigade Acquisition II Corp., raised $400 million in a March 2021 IPO but failed to identify a target and liquidated in December 2023, returning capital to trust holders. The third vehicle, M3-Brigade Acquisition III Corp., priced a $261 million IPO in October 2021 and completed its combination with oil sands producer Greenfire Resources in September 2023 at a $950 million valuation, but the de-SPAC stock traded approximately 42% below the $10 offer price post-close. The fourth vehicle, M3-Brigade Acquisition IV Corp., filed to go public in June 2021 but withdrew its S-1 registration in March 2022 before reaching the market, never completing an IPO.

The most significant red flags surround the fifth vehicle, M3-Brigade Acquisition V Corp., which raised $287.5 million in August 2024 with a mandate targeting the North American energy sector. In May 2025, less than a year after the IPO, the original sponsor sold all Class B founder shares and private placement warrants to MI7 Sponsor, LLC

1 sentence withheld from the text above. It stated a vehicle count (six vehicles) that does not reconcile with the record we counted: 4 vehicles — 1 in the live database and 3 SEC-verified prior vehicles. Neither side has been corrected here, and the stored research is unchanged; a count we cannot reconcile is not a count we will publish.

Data provenance & audit trail1 internal entry

Written by SpacBrain’s data agents whenever a figure is captured, corrected or flagged, and kept verbatim so every number on this page can be traced back to the filing that states it. This is a running log, not the current record: an early entry may be superseded by a later correction — the panels above always hold the current values.

M3-Brigade (Mohsin Meghji) — sponsor record

NOTE-SEAL2026-08-15

Raw SEC identifiers lifted out of the public prose above (the sentences are unchanged); verbatim, each shown with the words it followed: "…EC-verified): (1) M3-Brigade Acquisition III (CIK 0001856589)" · "…onfirmed via 425 filings). (2) M3-Brigade II (CIK 0001839175)" · "…UIDATED (25-NSE 2023-12). (3) M3-Brigade V (CIK 0002016072"

The Sponsor Score is a deterministic research heuristic over primary-sourced rows — never a recommendation, and never a prediction. It cannot tell you whether this sponsor’s next deal will work; it tells you, precisely and with its own uncertainty attached, what the last ones did.