Dune / Collective (Carter Glatt)

#105 of 117

48/100Mixed recordmedium confidence

48/100 from 4 resolved vehicles (2 closed, 2 failed), 44% of the raw 47 after small-sample shrink, completion credit gated ×0.83 by the measured post-close record. Confidence: medium.

Vehicles

4 in the live DB · 3 SEC-verified priors · computed by SpacBrain from cited rows, as of 2026-09-10

Resolved

2 closed · 2 liquidated · 0 terminated

Best priced exit

-99.2%

HGAS vs the $10.00 baseline

Worst priced exit

-99.2%

HGAS vs the $10.00 baseline

Sponsor DNA

what has happened before, with its sample size

Completion rate50%n=4 resolved vehiclesderived
Of the 4 vehicles this sponsor has taken to a final outcome, 2 closed a business combination.
Liquidation rate50%n=4 resolved vehiclesderived
2 of those 4 returned the trust to holders and wound up without a deal.
Median post-close return—n=1 priced completed deSPACderived
1 priced completed deSPAC on record; this median is published from 3. Two points have no middle — a median over them is their mean, and moves with either one.
Median redemption—n=1 redemption event with a stated ratederived
1 redemption event with a stated rate on record; this median is published from 3. Two points have no middle — a median over them is their mean, and moves with either one. Extraction covers part of the universe, so a low count is our coverage as much as the sponsor’s history.
Deals terminated0terminated dealscounted
No announced combination on this sponsor’s record has been terminated.
Extension votes on record2extension votescounted
2 extension votes — occasions this sponsor needed more time and asked holders for it.

4 of 6 statistics carry a figure for this sponsor. A rate is published from 3 resolved vehicles and a median from 3 observations: two points have no middle, and a rate over two can only be 0, 50 or 100. Counts have no threshold — a count is an observation, not an estimate.

Everything marked derived is arithmetic we did to rows we hold, not a figure any filing states.

What this panel will not tell you, and why (6)›

Median day-one move on announcement
PriceBar holds 2026-05-11 → 2026-08-17 only. Of 83 dated announcements across the whole universe, 16 fall on a day we hold a bar for a scored sponsor’s vehicle, spread over 14 sponsors — one sponsor reaches three observations. A bar that does not exist is not a 0% move.
Pre-vote move
Only 12 deals carry a vote date at all, and exactly 1 of them falls inside the PriceBar window. One observation is an anecdote with a decimal point.
Median time from IPO to announcement
42 IPO→announcement pairs exist, but only six sponsors have two and one has three. Enough for a statistic about the asset class; not for one about a sponsor, which is what this panel claims to be.
Median time from signing to close
Exactly 1 deal in the entire database is CLOSED and carries an announcement date. There is no 2nd observation anywhere to take a median over.
12-month post-deSPAC return
`SponsorPriorVehicle.postCloseReturnPct` is measured at the LAST close we hold, whenever that is — not on a 12-month anniversary. We hold no price history for the resulting companies, so the anniversary price does not exist. The median post-close return above is the honest version of this number and says what it is measured against.
Sponsor capital at risk
Nothing stores it. The only sponsor-economics column we hold is `Deal.promotePct` (founder shares as a percentage of post-IPO shares, on 34 deals under a scored sponsor), and that measures the equity the sponsor got nearly free — the opposite of the dollars it put in. Deriving at-risk capital from a promote percentage would be an invention with a citation stapled to it.

Score breakdown

every component, what it measured, and what it could not

Deal completion20% weightn=442/100
2/4 resolved vehicles closed a deal (50%); 2 liquidated, 0 terminated. Gated ×0.83 by measured post-close quality (33/100): closing deals that ended below trust value is not a completed job, so only 83% of the completion credit is earned. Full credit resumes at outcome quality 50/100 (the median deSPAC ending at trust value); the gate can never exceed 1×.
Liquidation / termination drag16% weightn=771/100
2 liquidations and 0 terminations across 7 vehicles raised → 29% attrition (terminations 1.25×, stale shells 0.75×).
Post-close outcome quality40% weightn=133/100
1 priced deSPAC vs trust value (prior vehicles against the $10.00 IPO baseline, in-DB vehicles against the trust they filed): median -99%, 0/1 still worth at least half of trust, 1 at under a tenth of it. Worst: HGAS -99%. n=1, pulled toward neutral. 1 other completion(s) not priced (1 no stored price) — left OUT of the ratio, not guessed.
Redemption behaviour10% weightn=137/100
Median 89% of public shares redeemed across 1 filed event (lower is better) — n=1, small sample, pulled toward neutral.
Extension reliance8% weightn=283/100
2 extension votes across 4 in-DB vehicles (0.5 per vehicle; 3+ scores zero).
Live fleet vs trust6% weightn=250/100
1/2 live vehicles trading at or above the trust value they filed.
Measured weak recordflat penaltyn=1not measurable
Only 1 measured prior vehicle (median -99%) — one vehicle is an anecdote, not a record; the rule needs ≥2.

How the number is built: weighted mean of the six components above = 47, then pulled 56% of the way back to the neutral 50 for small sample size (4 resolved vehicles) = 48.

How the Sponsor Score worksoutcome-first weighting

The score answers one question: did this sponsor make money for the people who held through the merger? Not “did they get a deal signed”. Those are different questions, and most sponsor rankings quietly answer the second one.

So post-close outcome quality carries 40% — the realised return of every prior vehicle we can price from a primary filing, measured against the $10.00 trust baseline. Deal completion carries 20%, and it is gated: closing deals that ended below trust value only earns part of the completion credit, because closing is a precondition for a return, not a return. Liquidation and termination drag takes 16%, redemption behaviour 10%, extension reliance 8%, and what the tape says about the live fleet just 6% — a quote is an opinion, not evidence.

A component with no data is never guessed. It is held at the neutral 50 across its full weight and labelled “not measurable”. Dropping it and re-weighting the rest would quietly reward a sponsor for having no verifiable record — exactly backwards. The consequence: a sponsor with no post-close evidence at all cannot read above 71, and cannot be labelled a strong operator no matter how many deals it closed.

Experience never inflates the score. There is no “years in business” component. A first-time sponsor sits at exactly 50 and reads “unproven” with low confidence — new is not bad. Sample size only pulls a score toward or away from that neutral 50, so nobody is called great or terrible on one vehicle.

Every input is a row already in the database, sourced from SEC primary filings: prior vehicles verified on EDGAR, redemption results read out of 8-Ks, prices from public feeds. The arithmetic is deterministic — no model, no LLM, no judgement call. Research tooling, not investment advice.

Prior vehicles

3 SEC-verified — what happened to holders who stayed in

Vehicle	Outcome	Became	vs $10.00	Today	Source
Dune Acquisition CorpIPO 2020	Completed	Global Gas CorpHGAS	-99.2%	Delisted$0.08 · Aug 14, 2026	0001213900-23-099273
Ahren Acquisition Corp.IPO 2021	Liquidated	—	—	—	0001354457-23-000414
Dune Acquisition Corp IIIIPO 2026	Searching	—	—	—	0001213900-26-081909

1 of 3 prior vehicles carry an honest post-close price, split-adjusted against the $10.00 trust baseline a holder gave up at the merger. Cash buyouts are read from the per-share consideration stated in the DEFM14A / SC 14D-9; a buyout no filing prices stays unpriced and stays out of the score. “Listing ended” means the quote stopped with no buyer — scored as a total loss because that is what the evidence says, but never printed as a percentage we cannot source.

Current fleet

the vehicles running today

Research profile

synthesized from SEC filings + sourced research

Carter Glatt's franchise, and the rename is on the CIK: COLLECTIVE ACQUISITION CORP. (ticker CCAQ) carries the EDGAR former name "Dune Acquisition Corp II". Collective Acquisition Sponsor LLC (0002111833) and Collective Acquisition Sponsor II LLC (0002114567) sponsor CCAQ and CAII; Dune Acquisition Holdings LLC (0001823247) and Dune Acquisition Holdings II LLC (0002061420) are the same series' earlier sponsors, and Glatt Carter (0001823250) files at all of them.

Data provenance & audit trail2 internal entries

Written by SpacBrain’s data agents whenever a figure is captured, corrected or flagged, and kept verbatim so every number on this page can be traced back to the filing that states it. This is a running log, not the current record: an early entry may be superseded by a later correction — the panels above always hold the current values.

Dune / Collective (Carter Glatt) — sponsor record

NOTE-SEAL2026-08-15

Raw SEC identifiers lifted out of the public prose above (the sentences are unchanged); verbatim, each shown with the words it followed: "…s on the CIK: COLLECTIVE ACQUISITION CORP. (CIK 0002041047"

SPONSOR-FAMILY2026-08-14

Family asserted from primary SEC data only (Form 3/4 reporting-owner XML, EDGAR submissions formerNames, sponsor-LLC registered addresses, and the vehicles' own prospectuses).

The Sponsor Score is a deterministic research heuristic over primary-sourced rows — never a recommendation, and never a prediction. It cannot tell you whether this sponsor’s next deal will work; it tells you, precisely and with its own uncertainty attached, what the last ones did.